Midterm poll predicts bleak outlook for Dems, tracks GOP with groups they typically win


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A new poll shows Republicans have an advantage heading into this year’s midterm elections, including among groups more traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party.

Asked which party they are likely to vote for in their riding, 52% of Latino voters said they would choose a Republican compared to 39% who said they would prefer a Democrat, according to results from a new NPR and Marist poll. Democrats also trail among voters under 45, with 50% saying they would choose a Republican versus 40% who said they plan to vote for a Democrat.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)


Latinos have traditionally preferred to vote for the Democrats, but recent data has shown the group has begun to drift away from the party in recent years. Younger voters also traditionally tend to lean towards the Democrats, with 55% of 30-49 year olds backing President Biden in 2020 and 59% of 18-29 year olds voting for Biden.

Republicans also enjoy a lead among independent voters, with 45% saying they would vote for a Republican versus 38% who say they support a Democrat.

But both groups could help propel the GOP to victory in 2022, with 47% of voters overall indicating they would choose a Republican candidate, compared to 44% who said they would support a Democrat.

Democrats have historically outscored Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot, the first time the GOP has led the poll since it took control of the House and Senate in 2014. A few-point lead only could cause problems for Democrats, who are now trailing by three points with six months to go before the election.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

of President Biden the approval rating also remains submerged, with 41% of voters saying they approve of the president’s job performance, compared to 51% who disapprove. Of those who disapprove, 37% indicated they strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance.

Economic issues are leading the way to steer voters toward Republicans, with 42% of voters indicating they think the GOP would do a better job with the economy, compared to 26% who believe Democrats are better equipped to handle the issue . Voters also favor Republicans on inflation, with 41% saying they trust the GOP more to control inflation, compared to 20% who said Democrats would be better.

President Biden

President Biden
(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)


Republicans also have an advantage in crime management, national security, immigration and gun rights.

The poll was conducted between April 19 and April 26 among 1,377 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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