Local elections 2022: Tories could face losing parliamentary majority – Sky News screening | Political news

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The Tories risk losing their Commons majority if local election results are replicated in a general election, according to a Sky News projection.

Analysis suggests that would mean a hung parliament, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives remaining the largest party in Westminster but falling short of an overall majority by 48 seats.

The projection is based on local election results from 1,700 wards and an analysis of how the vote share has changed since 2018 in 87 local authorities. He predicts the Conservatives would have 278 seats, seven more than Labor out of 271.

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Numbers come after Mr Johnson admitted it was a “difficult night” for his party after losing some key local councils in London to Labor – although the opposition party has had mixed results outside the capital.

Some local Tory leaders blamed the Prime Minister for the shock losses, as the party and the cost of living dominated comments at the door.

A Tory MP from the south told Sky News: “It’s pretty grim. The Prime Minister is to blame, no one else, and there are now 19 Tory MPs in London who will be crying out for blood. The Prime Minister is killing our traditional vote.

Find out more about the 2022 local elections

Separately, David Simmonds, Tory MP for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner in north-west London, told Sky News that partygate was the “number one issue I heard about on the doorstep”.

He added: “It’s far outweighed by issues like the cost of living.”

Mr Simmonds said voters were ‘sending a clear message to my party, to government, that there has to be change, we have to show that we have that sense of control’.

But Mr Johnson’s allies warned it was not time for a change of leader as they insisted Labor’s gains fell short of what the party needed to secure a general election victory .

The Prime Minister said: ‘We had a tough night in some parts of the country, but on the other hand, in other parts of the country you still see Tories going ahead and making some pretty remarkable gains .”

He said local election results were ‘certainly mixed’ after the Tories were defeated WandsworthMargaret Thatcher’s “favorite advice”, westminster and Barnett at work.

However, labor gains in the rest of England were more modest.

The party was also shaken by the announcement on Friday that the leader Sir Keir Starmer will be the subject of a police investigation in Durham for ‘beergate’ – the allegation he broke lockdown rules by drinking with colleagues in April last year.

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Local elections live: Lib Dem gains could scare Tory MPs weighing PM’s future

The Tories were dealt a blow in Somerset where the Liberal Democrats won a strong majority, regaining control of the council 13 years after losing it to the Tories.

Mr Keirspeaking from Barnet on Friday morning, said the results represented a “massive turning point for Labour”.

“From the depths of 2019, we are back on track now for the general election, showing the change we have made, the difficult change we have made over the past two years, what a difference it has made,” did he declare. added.

Emily Thornberry, Labour’s shadow attorney general, told Sky News: “We still have a mountain to climb, we don’t pretend we don’t.

“We’re back – and we’re well on our way to becoming the next government.”

Labor sources were particularly keen on snapping up the Tories’ “crown jewel” in Wandsworth, the London borough the party has held since 1978.

But Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory MP and former leader of the party, told Sky News: ‘No midterm council election is ever positive in a way… You really can’t extrapolate from here .”

But he admitted that “London hasn’t been good”.

Outside the capital, Labor triumphed in the new cumberland unitary council, which covers the seats held by the conservatives, and took the flagship council of Southampton conservatives.

But in the high-profile places where Labor needed to make progress – like Hartlepool, Peterborough, Redditch and Ipswichthe party failed to take this advice.

Maidstone, whose MP is a Tory, saw Labor and Greens win a seat each to prevent the Tory-led council from controlling the whole.

While the Conservatives saw a substantial drop in support in the south of England, Labor saw a bigger drop in the north.

A rise in Lib Dem support across England has seen the party win Labor Hull, win Conservatives in merton and in West Oxfordshirethe constituency represented by former Prime Minister David Cameron.

Local election results could also prove crucial for the Prime Minister’s future – and whether rumbles of backbench discontent escalate into a chorus of opposition triggering a vote of no confidence.

They will also indicate whether Sir Keir has been able to cope with the pressures the Prime Minister is facing due to the party, the cost of living crisis and questions about culture at Westminster.

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