2020 autopsy shows Democrats’ fears of losing Black, Hispanic and Asian voters to GOP


In-depth analysis of what went well for Democrats in the 2020 election warns the party could see support plummet with black, Hispanic and Asian voters in future contests, unless Democrats do a job more effective in countering Republican attacks.

While Democrats won the White House and narrowly won a Senate majority in the 2020 cycle, in the battle for the House, the GOP defied expectations and took a big chunk of the Democrats’ majority in the House and Republicans currently only need a net five-seat gain in the mid-term of 2022 to regain control of the chamber.

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A 73-page autopsy of the 2020 contests compiled by three pro-democracy groups – the Third Way, a centrist think tank; the PAC Collective, which supports black candidates; and the Latino Victory Fund, which promotes Hispanic candidates – highlights the fact that many House and Senate Democrats underperformed at the polls because they failed to match President Biden’s support with voters of color, who looked down on then-President Trump but also had reservations about the Democratic Party.

“The 2020 election was a mixed bag for Democrats. While delighted with Biden’s victory and the new Senate majority, the expected victories in many contested races did not materialize, and the Party lost a lot. land in the House, ”reads an introduction to the Third Way report.

A line of voters wraps around the block outside Washington High School in Milwaukee during the April 7, 2020 primary election.

A line of voters wraps around the block outside Washington High School in Milwaukee during the April 7, 2020 primary election.
(Coburn Dukehart / Wisconsin Watch via AP)

The introduction points out that “the purpose of this project was to determine what worked well for Democrats in these campaigns and, in particular, the challenges they faced, so that the Party could be better prepared to compete in 2022. and beyond”.

The analysis – which was first reported by The New York Times – highlights specific electoral setbacks with Spanish-speaking voters in Florida and Texas, black voters in North Carolina, and Asian American voters in California because she argues Democrats have failed to deliver a cohesive message. core message on the economy last year and “relied too much on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric.”

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And then concludes that unless the party does a better job fending off attacks by the GOP comparing Democrats to Socialists, they could see a further erosion of support among minority voters.

The report was produced over the past six months by veteran Democratic agents and communicators Lynda Tran and Marlon Marshall. The analysis included nearly 150 interviews with candidates, staff, consultants, and outside pro-democracy groups and organizations, as well as an in-depth review of survey and participation data, and advertising campaigns.

Among their findings – “voters of color are persuasive voters who need to be convinced”, “Republican attempts to label Democrats“ radical ”have worked,” “The polls were a huge problem – even after the 2016 adjustments “,” COVID-19 has affected everything “and” Our hopes for 2020 were just too high. “

At the end of their report, the authors stress that Democrats must “not apologize for race. And we must explain to all Americans why this is good for everyone.”

Tran and Marshall are also calling on officials to “reinvent the Democratic Party’s message and narrative” and have the party “commit to investing early and organizing year round.”

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The new study is being shared with senior Democratic National Committee officials as well as other party leaders. This follows a “deep dive” into the 2020 elections compiled by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ re-election arm.

This report blamed bad polls that underestimated voter turnout by Trump supporters, as well as effective messages from House Republicans who focused on the far-left ‘defund the police’ movement for the disappointing performance of the party in the congressional elections last November.

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